Economic Outlook Is Still Muddled
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The hiring projections of employers throughout the United States continue to be more optimistic than they were a year ago, but chief financial officers nationwide now are more pessimistic than they were during the previous quarter.

In the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, based on interviews with nearly 16,000 employers nationwide, 28 percent of respondents around the country said they plan to hire more workers from October through December, while only 7 percent plan to reduce their payrolls. Those figures are the same as they were during the previous two quarters, but far more optimistic than for the comparable periods in 2003.

Although the San Francisco and Los Angeles County areas are slightly below the national average, California overall is showing more optimism than the country is. Among the state’s employers, 33 percent expect to hire more people, while 8 percent expect a decrease in employees during the fourth quarter.

Another fresh survey is the quarterly Duke University CFO Outlook Survey, which drew responses from 201 top financial executives nationwide. This survey says that 55.7 percent of the CFOs are more optimistic about the economy than they were last quarter, but the comparable figure in the June survey had been 72.2 percent.

On top of that, nearly one in four CFOs were less optimistic about the economy than they had been in June.

They also predict that the gross domestic product will increase only 2.8 percent in the next year; in June, their forecast had been 3.1 percent.

For workers, though, there is positive news. The financial executives see employment increasing 3.1 percent over the next year — 2 percentage points higher than their forecast had been in June — and are projecting annual wages to go up 4.1 percent.

Money talking, people walking: In a survey that can appeal to the greedy capitalist in all of us, the Gallup Poll Tuesday Briefing found that 55 percent of Americans said they would continue in their jobs if they won $10 million in the lottery. Of those who would keep working, nearly two-thirds said they would stay in their current jobs.

Unfortunately, Gallup did not keep track of how many people burst out laughing when asked that question.

In its random sampling of 580 adults nationwide, the Gallup briefing also found:

— Sex matters. Sixty-one percent of male respondents say that they would continue to work even if they won the lottery, compared with 48 percent of female workers.

Although attitudes among the sexes are gradually changing, that hardly comes as a shock. Because of lack of educational opportunities or family demands, many women get stuck in unsatisfactory jobs that don’t pay all that well.

Gallup reports that more women are also likely to be single parents, and the logistics of working outside the home while raising children can be difficult.

And, in many instances, career success still plays a more crucial role in men’s self-esteem than it does for women. Again, obviously, there are millions of exceptions.

— So do age and religion. Of the people who say they attend church every week, 62 percent said they would keep working, even with the $10 million windfall. Of those who attend church less often — or not at all — only 53 percent say they would continue in their jobs.

Only 45 percent of employees age 50 and older would keep at it if they won the lottery, compared with 59 percent of younger workers.

Certainly some of that may be a Pavlovian response. By the time they get to be 50, many workers are already drooling over the prospect of retirement, whether it is because they have accomplished most of their career goals, have other plans for their golden years or are simply burned out.

Certainly burnout can happen at any age, but people over 50 have thought more about life after work than 30-year-olds would have.

— Happiness is key. This shouldn’t be a shock, but about two-thirds of those employees who say they are “completely satisfied” with their current jobs would want to continue working, but only 44 percent of other people would.

Dave Murphy is the San Francisco Chronicle's workplace columnist. His Web site is at www.couchpotatoguide.com.